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| 20081110 Roubini predicts further 20-25% drop in stocks |
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The economy will worsen in the coming months
and cause the market to fall another 20 to 25
percent in the United States and abroad, said
Nouriel Roubini, a New York University
business professor, on CNBC’s “Squawk
Box” on Monday.
Source: CNBC http://www.cnbc.com/id/27643300
Tags : Economy |
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Affichage : 6485
Durée : 84 s |
| Roubini:`Panic' May Force Market Shutdown P1 |
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Oct. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Hundreds of hedge
funds will fail and policy makers may need to
shut financial markets for a week or more as
the crisis forces investors to dump assets,
New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini
said.
``We've reached a situation of sheer panic,''
Roubini, who predicted the financial crisis
in 2006, told a conference of hedge-fund
managers in London today. ``There will be
massive dumping of assets'' and ``hundreds of
hedge funds are going to go bust,'' he said.
Group of Seven policy makers have stopped
short of market suspensions to stem the
crisis after the U.S. pledged on Oct. 14 to
invest about $125 billion in nine banks and
the Federal Reserve led a global coordinated
move to cut interest rates on Oct. 8.
Emmanuel Roman, co-chief executive officer at
GLG Partners Inc., said today that as many as
30 percent of hedge funds will close.
``Systemic risk has become bigger and
bigger,'' Roubini said at the Hedge 2008
conference. ``We're seeing the beginning of a
run on a big chunk of the hedge funds,'' and
``don't be surprised if policy makers need to
close down markets for a week or two in
coming days,'' he said.
Roubini predicted in July 2006 that the U.S.
would enter an economic recession. In
February this year, he forecast a
``catastrophic'' financial meltdown that
central bankers would fail to prevent,
leading to the bankruptcy of large banks
exposed to mortgages and a ``sharp drop'' in
equities.
Bear, Lehman
The comments preceded the collapse of Bear
Stearns & Cos. and Lehman Brothers Holdings
Inc. as well as the government seizure of
Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average, a benchmark for American
equities, has lost 37 percent this year,
including its biggest daily drop in more than
twenty years on Oct. 15.
The Dow average rose 2.5 percent to 8728.73
as of 10:55 a.m. today in New York.
Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi
roiled international markets on Oct. 10,
first saying world leaders were discussing
shutting down global financial exchanges, and
then saying he didn't mean it.
``In a fairly Darwinian manner, many hedge
funds will simply disappear,'' Roman said,
speaking at the same event as Roubini.
The hedge fund industry is stumbling through
its worst year in two decades and posted its
biggest monthly drop for a decade in
September. Hedge funds are mostly private
pools of capital whose managers participate
substantially in the profits from their
speculation on whether the price of assets
will rise or fall.
`Very Ugly'
``Things are getting very ugly also in the
emerging markets,'' Roubini said. ``The usual
saying is when the U.S. sneezes, the rest of
the world catches a cold. Unfortunately, this
time around the U.S. is not just sneezing, it
has a severe case of chronic and persistent
pneumonia. It's becoming a mess in emerging
markets.''
Developing nations' borrowing costs jumped to
the highest in six years today as Belarus
joined Hungary, Ukraine and Pakistan in
seeking a bailout from the International
Monetary Fund to help weather frozen money
markets and a slump in commodities. Argentina
risks defaulting for the second time this
decade.
``There are about a dozen emerging markets
that are now in severe financial trouble,''
Roubini said. ``Even a small country can have
a systemic effect on the global economy,'' he
added. ``There is not going to be enough IMF
money to support them.''
Roubini, a former senior adviser to the U.S.
Treasury Department, earlier this month said
that the world's biggest economy will suffer
its worst recession in 40 years.
``This is the worst financial crisis in the
U.S., Europe and now emerging markets that
we've seen in a long time,'' Roubini said.
``Things will get much worse before they get
better. I fear the worst is ahead of us.''
Tags : Roubini |
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Affichage : 14334
Durée : 574 s |
| Roubini: Worst yet to come |
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http://tinyurl.com/59cd4w
Nouriel Roubini | Nov 18, 2008
Here is below the annotated transcript of my
talk at the American Enterprise Institutes
September 30, 2008 seminar "The Deflating
Mortgage and Housing Bubble, Part IV: Where
Is the Bottom?" The transcript is courtesy of
The Housing Doom. For those who are
interested there is also a video version of
my talk.
Nouriel Roubini: [23:34] Well, Desmond
Lachman described very well in his remarks
why things are getting worse rather than
better in the housing market, and I share his
outlook and pessimism. I would like to
elaborate on the broader picture about whats
happening in the economy and the financial
markets.
Ive been saying for a while this will be the
worst financial crisis the US has experienced
since the Great Depression and it looks like
the worst one. I mean I dont think theres
anything thats happened since the Great
Depression looks so severe. Of course the
real economic consequences in terms of output
contraction are not going to be as bad as the
Great Depression because there is a massive
amount of policy action, but in terms of
financial shock, I mean what does happen in
the last few months is really quite
unbelievable, every other week another major
financial institution going belly up.
The other observation is that while were
talking about subprime mortgages and housing,
I think theres a growing recognition that
this was not just a subprime mortgage
problem, where there much more generalized
asset bubble and credit bubble in the
economy. It was subprime, it was near-prime
it was prime mortgages, there were massive
excesses also of underwriting in commercial
real estate, the boom in the indebtedness of
the household sector included also unsecured
consumer credit like credit cards, auto
loans, student loans with all this other
excesses in the corporate sector [25:00]
coming from LBOs that should never have never
occurred, financed by these leveraged loans,
a trillion-plus LBO with a debt to equity
ratio that didnt make any sense. Excesses of
borrowing also by municipalities — in the
last real estate recession muni bonds were
trading like junk bonds because there were
many municipalities going belly up, the same
thing is going to happen right now.....
Tags : Roubini |
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Affichage : 7395
Durée : 391 s |
| Panic! Bank Run! Roubini: US Economy in Cardiac Arrest! |
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Credit Markets are seizing up...Mainstream
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banks and Gov't is making all the wrong
moves...
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Tags : Panic! Bank Run Roubini US Economy in Cardiac Arrest Economic Collapse commentary analysis |
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Affichage : 11457
Durée : 213 s |
| 20081022 Roubini CNBC 1 |
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Discussing the financial crisis with Nouriel
Roubini, of RGEMonitor.com; Jack Rivkin,
former CIO of Neuberger German; and the CNBC
news team
Source:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=8994768
81&play=1
Tags : Economy |
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Affichage : 1587
Durée : 586 s |
| 20081022 Roubini CNBC 2 |
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Discussing the financial crisis with Nouriel
Roubini, of RGEMonitor.com; Jack Rivkin,
former CIO of Neuberger German; and the CNBC
news team
Source:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=8994922
16&play=1
Tags : Economics |
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Affichage : 772
Durée : 226 s |
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